State of the State Address

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will deliver his fifth State of the State address this afternoon to a packed Assembly chambers.  If history is a guide, the governor will deliver, in broad strokes, a thematic speech that serves as a road map for the year to come.

• 2004 was the year of cutting the state bureaucracy. (That was the famous blow-up-the-boxes speech. The boxes, by most accounts, still remain.)

• 2005 was the year of "reform." (But voters rejected all four Schwarzenegger-sponsored measures in the fall's special election.)

• 2006 was the year of infrastructure. (The governor negotiated four bonds with legislative leaders, all of which were approved by voters in the November election, jump-starting $40 billion worth of construction.)

• 2007 was the year of health care. (Which isn't quite over yet, with a negotiated deal passing the Assembly but waiting for approval by the Senate before voters can have their say in November.)

The 2008 speech will focus on the budget, which is $14 billion in the red. The Schwarzenegger administration, unlike in years past, has not spent the preceding week leaking out pieces of well-liked programs leading up to the speech.

Instead, they have been tamping down expectations, promising spending cuts and another stab at "budget reform," which was hinted at in radio addresses by former Gov. Pete Wilson and finance director Mike Genest.

This year's speech is set for 3:30 p.m., an hour and a half earlier than usual so as not to compete with the early vote tallies from New Hampshire, where the presidential candidates are hitting the stump for the final day.